The Kenyan Crisis

With the political climate clearly warming towards a power sharing arrangement allowing Raila a chance to govern Kenya in a way he should have been able to long ago, I wonder now what the next reaction from a now threatened Kibaki-PNU mafia will be.

We all know that the Kibaki junta occupies power to work for and by virtue of a small cabal of wealthy elites with strong reasons to further their covert political connections. These nefarious powers must now be feeling threatened by the prospect of their stolen election plans being rewritten. With someone as vile, fascistic and loathsome as Marth Karua to do the bidding you'd assume this mafia's hidden interests would be well protected and I can only assume they're delighted at the way Kenya's turmoil came very close to perpetuating their desire to entrench the political status quo that has for so long handicapped Kenya.

Could the winds of change be sweeping through Kenya once again? After death, destruction and mayhem on a scale that should never have occurred and should never be allowed to happen again, are we seeing progress in moving towards the creation of a position of Prime Minister and some broad agreements on the need for constitutional, land and electoral reforms? We can only hope so if for no other reason than to provide the dead, displaced and now destitute citizens of Kenya with some comfort that, despite many very horrific crimes, their losses were not all in vain. Furthermore, struggle for democracy is always and everywhere a important one.

I fear, however, that we might just be entering a new phase in this struggle. It's for that reason that I pose what I consider to be two hefty and interlinked questions: How big are the interests? How far will the interested parties go? By 'interests', I'm referring to the wealth and business interests of a number of well-connected and unaccountable cohorts with a direct line to Mwai Kibaki (I will never acknowledge this man as a President of anything unless he legitimately wins a free and fair election). My second question relates to the extent to which these people will act to protect what they own and the level of corruption they're willing to inflict on Kenya to ensure their interests are forever served.

To exhaust the meteorological analogy one last time, it appears that after the flood, and on the back of the winds of change, there could well be storm clouds on the horizon for Kenya if Raila is given a meaningful position in government. The chance that this position will never truly be realised is high and in this instance the importance of my two questions becomes diminished. If, however, the mafia legitimised only by the name PNU is prepared to compromise and reach a meaningful political agreement with ODM, how then will our business elites with vested interests react? Is Raila's life at risk? Are we going to see the direct funding of Mungiki or some other militia to do battle with an already mobilised and well organised mob from both Kalenjin and Luo communities? Will the current Parliament simply amble along achieving nothing and failing Kenya in an even more dramatic way than it has managed to do so since independence?

What will be the response from the gang of tyrants with everything to lose and a lot to be exposed? We need, I fear, to ponder these questions further.

NOTE: I will ignore any tribalistic responses which are clearly unhelpful and serve only to reveal the prejudices borne out of unmitigated ignorance and stupidity on the part of the individual expressing them.